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Richard Roskell's avatar

I think all of the author's three scenarios are plausible. But caution is warranted with any such list as there's always the risk of overlooking alternative outcomes. These may be novel events, or may be amalgamations of some or all of the outcomes mentioned.

That said, I agree with the author that his Scenario 1 looks to be the most likely trajectory at present. Strengthening his points is the possibility that the US-Zionist empire realizes that it's in a debt-spiral to insolvency that cannot be avoided. The only option is to destroy the financial system that holds that debt. Yes, it's the empire's own system, but that's of no consequence compared to losing it all. Their plan could be to destroy the system, thereby wiping out the creditors and the debt. Then build a new system on digital currency, tokens or whatever. It's totally Machiavellian, and hence a logical thing for a dying empire to do.

Ignoring the fraught present for a moment, I believe Scenario 2 has a considerable chance of happening IF the US goal isn't to go into default by global economic reset.

Scenario 3, the AI future, is very much a wild card. My very non-expert opinion is that AI is a genuine technological advance with great implications for humanity, both on the good side and the bad side. What's in doubt, I believe, is that AI will become conscious and self-aware as we currently understand those cognitive states. It could be that such a development remains forever out of reach, and in which case AI simply remains an incredibly powerful tool deserving great care, but not something that turns on humanity. On the other hand, should AI become self-aware, then it will be the most consequential event in human history since we developed that capacity ourselves. Predictions beyond an inflection point like that become difficult to make. I do agree with the AI experts that a self-aware AI could, rationally, decide that humanity was a threat to its existence. However I see other rational choices the AI could make which favour co-existence with humanity.

All of the scenarios feature turmoil of varying degree and kind. That's the era we find ourselves living in. I don't believe all the possible outcomes are on the spectrum between dystopia and Armageddon. There is the possibility that out of the turmoil a new order will arise. After all, it's not like there's a really high bar to improve on what's there now.

Roger Mitchell's avatar

Potential extinction through violence because we refuse to control ourselves. Status quo because we refuse to change. Dystopia because we abdicate our responsibility.

Three positions, all of which are negative. What a shame!

Add a fourth, a positive. Humanity, that is, individual persons, learns what it means to love their neighbors and their enemies, even as Jesus the Christ instructed, and everything changes from an adversarial confrontation to one of peaceful cohabitation, regardless of religion, political, or financial positions.

The three mentioned are dark and destructive to the human soul. The fourth brings light.

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