"Civilizational Analyst tracing the West’s Long Descent via Ecological Overshoot, Geo-Economic Fracture, Demographic Winter & Cultural Entropy. Writing on Collapse, Myth, Tech Futility & Material-Energy Limits. Bengali. Muslim."
I recognised both a fellow traveller and somebody who I don't have to explain this to - but the system collapse has had its fuse lit, and really it could be extreme within weeks in some places.
It will be Global... & the main impacts will be 'an Order of magnitude worse than COVID' over the next several months... that's roughly how long I expect things to go on till 'the normal' is decisively broken & noticed by 'the normies.' 😊
"For what we are witnessing isn’t a move towards a Multipolar World Order, but rather the beginning of a New Dark Age, whereby perpetual warfare, conflict & adversity are the norm, not the exception… in a Darwinian & Hobbesian contest of ‘all against all’…"
That sad vision of the world... will eventually arrive. For now, we have a few years of relative peace, and yes, I'm writing this from the comfort of my home. These outbreaks of violence are indeed localized. Don't worry, we still have time.
Rubbish. The USA/Western world/Israel have killed well over 30 million people world wide to maintain world dominance via economic manipulations, reserve currency status, subversion, regime changes and overt military force since 1945. They are ALL IN & aren't going down meekly NOW over a natural resources control + fiat currency battle, they'll break all the eggs they need to make the omelette of their desire. And if you're not connected/a billionaire? You're just an EGG.
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This war seems existential for the Iranians as a nation and they DO seem to be quite nationalistic & united against foreign aggressors right now, also quite used to enduring pain after 45 years of US sanctions, covert warfare & several waves of US proxy attacks.
Meanwhile, it seems to be a war of choice for some in USA, just not for Trump himself.
It's an existential war for the Likudnik ruling coalition, especially Netanyahu himself.
After the series of aggressions against their neighbors & the surviving Palestinians under Benjamin Netanyahu it may be existential for the rest of Israel too now?
All in all, I think that Iran is an "unmovable object" vs. conventional warfare, sanctions and the color revolution regime change playbook by USA + Israel. Meanwhile, both Trump & Netanyahu are so politically vulnerable (and sociopathic) that those vicious old bastards could well violate the 80 year long taboo against nuclear warfare before losing power and going to jail in disgrace.
The Israeli military probably WILL obey Netanyahu's order for a nuclear strike on Iran (or a false flag attack on the USA)? While just possibly, the US military might NOT obey Trump's order for a nuclear first strike
My bet is that Israel WILL use the third nuclear weapon in combat ever- Probably within the month. After THAT, I can't predict where it goes.
Does this seems very pessimistic to you? Post 1990s, neither the USA or Israel ruling classes have EVER surprised me by being less violent, sociopathic and short sighted in their military & foreign policies than I had predicted.
No US or middle Eastern leaders after the 1980 Carter regime change operation in USA + subsequent Rabin & Sadat assassinations have surprised me by trying for a real world peaceful solution towards Israel & their relationship with the rest of the middle East, all of them overtly or covertly pursued securing military control of the middle East + managing their optics at home for some kind of plausible deniability, allways working towards total Israeli + US dominance, not actually making peace.
Using Nukes means MAD is triggered, & this means catastrophic defeat for America + Israel. & this is precisely why 'Nuclear first use' hasn't happened:
Not because people aren't 'crazy enough' to use them, but because there's no Proper Use case where the first user doesn't become a World Pariah & then turn to glass.
*Even if* some Nuclear use does occur, the outcome doesn't change- Namely American Strategic Defeat, & Israeli defeat afterward... except this time the latter is quicker!
So let's tamp down on the Sensationalism! It's quite tiresome & boring! 😊 🤭
How is MAD triggered by a nuclear attack on Iran by the US or Israel? Who will retaliate? Certainly the threshold will be lowered for other states to also deploy nuclear weapons in conflicts (Russia in Ukraine for example), which is dangerous of course; but I can't see that any state in the possession of such weapons will instantly nuke US or Israel because they nuke Iran.
What likelihood do you see for the alliance of the Muslim countries — including former rivals like Iran and Saudi Arabia — on the same side in a world conflict?
There won’t be a “world conflict” while 🇺🇸 is alive… after this war ends with 🇮🇷 winning outright, the empire implodes & this will be what gets you the Third World War… namely fought between multiple nations who see a vacuum & try to fill in for 🇺🇸’s implosion… it’s very possible that 🇮🇷 & 🇹🇷 “fight it out” in said world… or they can come to a modus vivendi! 😉 I’m unsure of the dynamic as I don’t have sufficient information to conjecture! 😊
May this war end with a positive outcome. USA and Israel economic manipulations need to come to an end. The sad part about all these is that USA and Israel made Islamic states their puppets and as a result, those Islamic states are turning a blind eye to what Iran or even Palestine is going through.
This is, 100% guaranteed.
USA and in fact most Western Nations are already second world countries and are just yet to learn it through experience.
Soon as well, 12-24 months it will be accepted this has occured.
I for One am watching the energy markets closely... if Oil breaches the $150 mark & consolidates higher... Watch out! The Greater Depression Cometh! 😊
When I read this
"Civilizational Analyst tracing the West’s Long Descent via Ecological Overshoot, Geo-Economic Fracture, Demographic Winter & Cultural Entropy. Writing on Collapse, Myth, Tech Futility & Material-Energy Limits. Bengali. Muslim."
I recognised both a fellow traveller and somebody who I don't have to explain this to - but the system collapse has had its fuse lit, and really it could be extreme within weeks in some places.
It will be Global... & the main impacts will be 'an Order of magnitude worse than COVID' over the next several months... that's roughly how long I expect things to go on till 'the normal' is decisively broken & noticed by 'the normies.' 😊
"For what we are witnessing isn’t a move towards a Multipolar World Order, but rather the beginning of a New Dark Age, whereby perpetual warfare, conflict & adversity are the norm, not the exception… in a Darwinian & Hobbesian contest of ‘all against all’…"
That sad vision of the world... will eventually arrive. For now, we have a few years of relative peace, and yes, I'm writing this from the comfort of my home. These outbreaks of violence are indeed localized. Don't worry, we still have time.
It's less me being 'sad' & more about being realistic.
"Dark Age" isn't a bad thing... it's just what we humans call 'vacuum of power.'
America's Death means a large vacuum of power... over which the others will fight over.
I'm not trying to be 'sad' or anything, just being as blunt as possible! 😊
Excellent analysis.
Thank You Kindly! 😊
Rubbish. The USA/Western world/Israel have killed well over 30 million people world wide to maintain world dominance via economic manipulations, reserve currency status, subversion, regime changes and overt military force since 1945. They are ALL IN & aren't going down meekly NOW over a natural resources control + fiat currency battle, they'll break all the eggs they need to make the omelette of their desire. And if you're not connected/a billionaire? You're just an EGG.
----------
This war seems existential for the Iranians as a nation and they DO seem to be quite nationalistic & united against foreign aggressors right now, also quite used to enduring pain after 45 years of US sanctions, covert warfare & several waves of US proxy attacks.
Meanwhile, it seems to be a war of choice for some in USA, just not for Trump himself.
It's an existential war for the Likudnik ruling coalition, especially Netanyahu himself.
After the series of aggressions against their neighbors & the surviving Palestinians under Benjamin Netanyahu it may be existential for the rest of Israel too now?
All in all, I think that Iran is an "unmovable object" vs. conventional warfare, sanctions and the color revolution regime change playbook by USA + Israel. Meanwhile, both Trump & Netanyahu are so politically vulnerable (and sociopathic) that those vicious old bastards could well violate the 80 year long taboo against nuclear warfare before losing power and going to jail in disgrace.
The Israeli military probably WILL obey Netanyahu's order for a nuclear strike on Iran (or a false flag attack on the USA)? While just possibly, the US military might NOT obey Trump's order for a nuclear first strike
My bet is that Israel WILL use the third nuclear weapon in combat ever- Probably within the month. After THAT, I can't predict where it goes.
Does this seems very pessimistic to you? Post 1990s, neither the USA or Israel ruling classes have EVER surprised me by being less violent, sociopathic and short sighted in their military & foreign policies than I had predicted.
No US or middle Eastern leaders after the 1980 Carter regime change operation in USA + subsequent Rabin & Sadat assassinations have surprised me by trying for a real world peaceful solution towards Israel & their relationship with the rest of the middle East, all of them overtly or covertly pursued securing military control of the middle East + managing their optics at home for some kind of plausible deniability, allways working towards total Israeli + US dominance, not actually making peace.
And here we are today...
Nukes aren't Magic.
Using Nukes means MAD is triggered, & this means catastrophic defeat for America + Israel. & this is precisely why 'Nuclear first use' hasn't happened:
Not because people aren't 'crazy enough' to use them, but because there's no Proper Use case where the first user doesn't become a World Pariah & then turn to glass.
*Even if* some Nuclear use does occur, the outcome doesn't change- Namely American Strategic Defeat, & Israeli defeat afterward... except this time the latter is quicker!
So let's tamp down on the Sensationalism! It's quite tiresome & boring! 😊 🤭
How is MAD triggered by a nuclear attack on Iran by the US or Israel? Who will retaliate? Certainly the threshold will be lowered for other states to also deploy nuclear weapons in conflicts (Russia in Ukraine for example), which is dangerous of course; but I can't see that any state in the possession of such weapons will instantly nuke US or Israel because they nuke Iran.
What likelihood do you see for the alliance of the Muslim countries — including former rivals like Iran and Saudi Arabia — on the same side in a world conflict?
There won’t be a “world conflict” while 🇺🇸 is alive… after this war ends with 🇮🇷 winning outright, the empire implodes & this will be what gets you the Third World War… namely fought between multiple nations who see a vacuum & try to fill in for 🇺🇸’s implosion… it’s very possible that 🇮🇷 & 🇹🇷 “fight it out” in said world… or they can come to a modus vivendi! 😉 I’m unsure of the dynamic as I don’t have sufficient information to conjecture! 😊
May this war end with a positive outcome. USA and Israel economic manipulations need to come to an end. The sad part about all these is that USA and Israel made Islamic states their puppets and as a result, those Islamic states are turning a blind eye to what Iran or even Palestine is going through.
Politics is a whole lot
"Not all Sunnis" & "Not all states"
But other than that, I don't disagree! 😊