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John Lonergan's avatar

Constantin von Hoffmeister's argument for a new Darwinian multipolarity, where regional hegemons rise and clash, rests on a fundamental misreading of modern history. This vision, while rhetorically powerful, is a relic of a world that began to disappear with the dawn of the Industrial Revolution. The true nature of global power did not fracture into rival spheres; rather, it consolidated into a new, unique form of dominance that the West, and particularly the United States, came to embody. The idea of a return to multiple, geographically bounded hegemons is a fiction, because the West already won the hegemonic struggle on terms far more advanced than mere territorial dominion.

The Industrial Revolution unleashed a force that fundamentally transcended the logic of regional empires. Power was no longer measured solely by the size of an army or the breadth of a kingdom's borders. Instead, it was defined by control over capital, technology, and global supply chains. The British Empire, and later the United States, did not seek to rule every territory directly but to integrate the world into a single, interconnected system from which they profited immensely. This system, built on free trade, financial institutions, and technological innovation, became the new battlefield. It is a system in which the West's cultural, economic, and institutional norms serve as the default setting for global interaction. To suggest that a new "regional hegemon" can simply emerge and compete on this field is to ignore the existing, deeply entrenched infrastructure of Western power.

Von Hoffmeister’s claim that multipolarity is driven by Darwinian struggle fails to account for the true nature of modern power. The "claws" he describes are not just military; they are the financial networks, the intellectual property laws, the global reserve currency, and the control over data and digital communication. Russia's "claws" in Central Asia are not a sign of a new, equal hegemon rising; they are the desperate grasp of a declining power attempting to maintain relevance through outdated, 19th-century methods. China, while a formidable economic force, is a case in point. Its so-called "rise" is less a modern ascent and more a reversion to a historical model of top-down, state-driven control. This pre-industrial form of governance, based on an absence of internal pluralism and a rigid, hierarchical system, is fundamentally ill-suited to navigate the fluid, decentralized world of global finance and innovation. Its power is brittle and will likely prove unsustainable in the long run against the adaptive, flexible, and decentralized nature of Western influence.

International law, far from being a "ghostly word," is the language of this Western-dominated order. It may not prevent all conflict, but it largely dictates the terms of engagement, the rules of trade, and the norms of diplomacy. This legal framework is not an illusion of parity but a reflection of the hegemonic reality. The world is not fracturing into rival, equal spheres but rather showing signs of a single, deeply integrated global system that, for now, remains fundamentally organized around Western principles. Putin's vision of an equal table is indeed a fiction, but not for the reasons Von Hoffmeister suggests. It is a fiction because the table is already set, and the rules of the feast have long been established by the West.

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