Trump, MAGA, and the War Party
Victory amid uncertainty
Alexander Dugin sees the Alaska summit as a diplomatic breakthrough for Russia but warns that Western power dynamics make prolonged conflict unavoidable.
There is no doubt: the meeting in Alaska was a huge success for our diplomacy. Our President very clearly presented our demands and our vision of the situation to Donald Trump. Even though the lunch did not take place, I interpret it as a planned move, confirming the seriousness of our demands for ensuring national interests and security. This, in my view, is the main achievement.
The very fact of the meeting is already a victory. Russia broke through isolation and was recognized by Trump as a great power. This is the highest art of our diplomacy. As for the actual conditions that were discussed, I know nothing about them. And that is a good thing, since otherwise there would be endless speculation and distortions.
If Trump reaches agreements with the globalist leaders of the EU and with Zelensky, we will learn the conditions and be able to evaluate them. If no agreement is reached, then it does not matter what conditions were discussed. Everything will continue as before. The only fork in the road is whether Trump, like Biden, will take part in the conflict on the side of Ukraine or whether he will withdraw from it. These are the three uncertainties that lie ahead. Why rush forward and build hypotheses? I think it is worth waiting just a few days, and everything will become clear.
In fact, the summit in Alaska is a fundamental and principled success. But the main question is whether Trump is sovereign in making decisions. Will he be able, for example, to stop the conflict in Ukraine from the American side? Will he ensure this, even if he insists on his own position? Will he change his stance? Will the other participants in his project accept it? And, in principle, what are the conditions? None of this is yet known to us.
What we do know is that the meeting in Alaska was a diplomatic success. Beyond that: complete uncertainty. The only certainty is that we conveyed to Trump our understanding of the conditions under which we could agree to end the conflict, and that is all. We stated what we consider to be our national interests, and now Trump, who clearly wants to end the conflict, will weigh this against the positions of other participants.
We are about to see how sovereign Trump is in relation to the EU, how independent he is from the “Deep State” and the neoconservatives, who advocate increasing military pressure. How far has he drifted away from the MAGA movement, which was his support and ideology, within which he should long ago have moved towards de-escalation and ending support for Ukraine, but he did not do this. This shows that he is moving away from MAGA (as also in his position on the Middle East and in the publication of the Epstein files). But at this point, there are too many uncertainties to make any forecasts.
It must be understood that in the West today, those who want to fight us are more numerous than those who want peace. These include the EU, the Ukrainian Nazi regime, the US Democratic Party, the neoconservatives of the Republican Party, and the entire American Deep State. On the other side are those who do not want war with us. This is the MAGA movement and, it seems, Trump himself, who wants to pose as a peacemaker and receive the Nobel Peace Prize. But what will prove stronger? Trump’s personal ambitions and the weakened influence of the MAGA movement or the Democratic Party, which controls almost all of the Western press, the Deep State, which oversees both parties, the neoconservative core of the Republican Party, as well as the EU and Zelensky?
The balance of forces is unequal. I believe that the “war party” in the West now outweighs the “peace party.” Therefore, we must be prepared for any outcome. The most important thing is to defend our interests, never surrender, and never trust the West. Even if there are forces there that are in some way ideologically close to us, like the MAGA movement, we see that they themselves are in isolation and cannot play a decisive role.
Over the past six months, the MAGA coalition, consisting of very interesting figures (Elon Musk, Steve Bannon, Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, Alex Jones, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Thomas Massie), has separated from Trump. Therefore, we should rely on ourselves, harbor no unnecessary illusions, trust our President, and prepare for a long war. Even if we stop now, the war will catch up with us. It seems that war is our fate. However, it has always been so in our history.
(Translated from the original Russian version on Tsargrad)
Order Alexander Dugin’s The Trump Revolution here.
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This is a clear-eyed assessment by Professor Dugin. I'm glad to see him return to a more realistic viewpoint after his bromance with Trump and MAGA. They will never be Russia's friends, at least in our lifetimes.
Trump will say anything to those he wishes to rope into a deal. His words mean nothing, only what's on paper matters and even that only somewhat, as Trump has no qualms about ripping up written agreements as well.
As for MAGA, Professor Dugin may see some elements in the movement which resonate with his own beliefs, but it's delusional to believe that those elements will blossom into a friendship or alliance with Russian interests.
It's clear that many in Russia, like jilted lovers, strongly hope that everything can be smoothed over with the US and warm relations renewed. It. Won't. Happen. This has nothing to do with Russia per se. It's about America and its baked in sense of superiority, which permeates its culture just as much as it does its strategic thinking.