Multipolar Press

Multipolar Press

Europe, Russia, and the Game of Shadows

Sherlock Holmes and the logic of deterrence

Simon Rorschach
Aug 19, 2026
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Simon Rorschach reads the struggle between Russia and Europe through Sherlock Holmes, where every threat, clue, and miscalculation carries enormous weight.

Among the European powers, Britain, Germany, and France are seeking the foremost place in any coming negotiations with Russia. Their governments want a seat close to the center of the table, both to shape the terms of a settlement and to protect their own standing inside the Western alliance. Moscow, meanwhile, treats such talks as a matter for a later season, after military pressure and political strain have altered the balance more decisively in Russia’s favor. The result is a strange interval in which Europe prepares for diplomacy while simultaneously feeding the machinery of war. Officials collect intelligence, compare economic figures, study Russian production, and calculate how long each side can sustain the contest. Their method resembles Sherlock Holmes entering the bloodstained room in A Study in Scarlet. He studies footprints, ash, scratches, distances, and small objects because the larger truth emerges from the accumulation of details. Europe now performs a similar exercise, hoping that patient observation will reveal the moment when pressure has produced an opening.

Read on to see how Holmes helps decode the contest of missiles, deterrence, and strategic pressure now unfolding across Europe.

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