Drones over Poland

Red lines, restraint, and the return of strength

Alexander Dugin interprets the Polish drone incident as a test of red lines, balancing warning, provocation, and illusion to signal Russia’s revived confidence and strategic restraint.

According to reports from the Polish military, about ten Russian drones entered the country’s airspace. The incident occurred near Rzeszów airport, the hub where NATO countries deliver military supplies bound for Ukraine. F-16 and F-35 fighters were scrambled, and Poland maintained contact with NATO command regarding the UAV incursion. Most importantly, operations were suspended at four airports: Warsaw’s main Chopin hub, Warsaw–Modlin, Rzeszów–Jasionka (the closest to Ukraine), and Lublin.

Three hypotheses have been put forward:

1. This may be a warning from us [Russia] to the European Union about how things could unfold. If we were Israel, Ukraine’s entire military-political leadership would have long since been eliminated, and several precisely targeted missiles would already have struck Rzeszów, Warsaw, Berlin, Paris, and London. Yet we are not Israel, though who can say for how long? In Christianity, the New Testament Church is the New Israel; in Orthodoxy, only the Orthodox Church holds that role; and in our Russian Church, the New Israel is Holy Rus’. So we are not entirely a “non-Israel,” though in a very different sense — or perhaps not so different after all. In any case, it cannot be ruled out that we are simply limbering up.

2. It could be a provocation by Kiev to draw the EU into the war. That would fit entirely with their spirit, style, and interests. If that were the case, we would already be loudly denying everything from every platform this morning. Yet we have not — neither from every platform, nor loudly. Perhaps, even if it is a provocation, the outcome still suits us. Let NATO figure out where the drones came from. Our restraint in issuing denials looks very solid. Nothing has struck yet, though it could at any moment. This is the language of strength and sovereignty — timely and appropriate.

3. Or perhaps nothing at all happened. Some fragments of who-knows-what, some debris, some explosions. We have long been accustomed to this — it is war. The Poles simply panicked. If nothing happened, then nothing happened. Let them fight their hallucinations — until something real arrives.

To sum up: in every scenario, what stands out is the effectiveness of firm responses to the crossing of our red lines, of strong moves, and of dignified silence. It seems only now we are regaining confidence that we still have capacities left. Self-confidence is returning, confusion is fading, and regrouping is underway. We are gathering ourselves.

I utterly disapprove of Israel’s behavior. Yet in a world where such conduct goes unpunished for some, illusions are pointless. The right of the strong decides everything. Such is the reality for now. I do not believe we will imitate such excesses, but we must be absolutely clear that we will receive no mercy — regardless of whether we cross their red lines or not. They have already crossed ours long ago. And it is worth reminding them of this — one way or another.

I believe such a reminder has already been decided on, though it has not yet been delivered. We will give it at the right moment. As unrest begins in France and Britain, and as the EU moves towards a final break with a frenzied Israel (which is already firing drones at Greta Thunberg’s flotilla as a warning), we will choose the right moment — and then we will remind them.

(Translated from the Russian)

Alexander Dugin’s books can be purchased here.